Will the LGBT vote make a difference in 2016?

by Rob Howard
Political Columnist

Remember the Presidential election  of 2004? President George W. Bush, and his political advisor Karl Rove, driven by Massachusetts’ approval of same-sex marriage early in the year,  decided to make “gay marriage” an issue in the political campaign. As a result, in many states constitutional amendments and new laws were proposed and on the ballot that would define marriage as between a man and a woman, effectively banning LGBT marriage equality.

It put Democratic nominee John Kerry in a bind, said US News and World Report yesterday. “In 2004, Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry was in a bind about same-sex marriage, an issue increasingly supported by the Democratic base but still unpopular with the public at large. Kerry walked a political line, saying he personally believed marriage was between a man and a woman, but was OK with civil unions for gays and lesbians.”

It was a strategy that worked. CNN said, the day after the November 3, 2004 election, “Six months after gay and lesbian couples won the right to marry in Massachusetts, opponents of same-sex marriage struck back Tuesday, with voters in 11 states approving constitutional amendments codifying marriage as an exclusively heterosexual institution.

“Voters in Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky, Michigan, Mississippi, Montana, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon and Utah all approved anti-same-sex marriage amendments by double-digit margins.”

It was better in 2008, when Barack Obama and John McCain were facing off for the Presidency. Obama said in February of that year that he favored the repeal of DOMA, the Defense of Marriage Act that banned federal benefits to married same-sex couples.

But even then, Obama did not endorse same-sex marriage, falling back instead on civil unions.

It wasn’t until 2010 that Obama appeared to be coming around on the issue. ThinkProgress.org says that, in an October 2010 interview, he was “evolving” on the issue. “He admitted, ‘I have been to this point unwilling to sign on to same-sex marriage,’ but added that ‘I think that it is an issue that I wrestle with’ and ‘I think it’s fair to say that it’s something that I think a lot about.’”

It wasn’t until May of 2012, when he was running for reelection, that he finally came out in favor of marriage equality.

And so, USNews in its article yesterday, noted that there has been a sea-change in presidential politics: “Three presidential campaigns later [after the disastrous 2004 election], that line has shifted to underscore lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender rights. GOP nominee Donald Trump made no mention of gay marriage or transgender bathroom access when he spoke to the Values Voters Summit earlier this month.

“A Republican congressman got an angry response from his GOP colleagues when he said he didn't want to contribute to the national Republican Congressional Committee because it aided gay candidates. And even in once-conservative North Carolina, a governor could lose his job over the transgender bathroom issue, perhaps inflicting collateral damage on the GOP incumbent Senate candidate and Trump as well.”

Hillary Clinton has also evolved on marriage equality. She came out in favor of same-sex marriage in 2013, but several journalists attacked her history on LGBT rights and on the marriage issue in particular.

Now, Clinton is a full-throated supporter of LGBT rights and marriage equality. Will it make a difference in the election?

HRC thinks so. In their daily news update, A.M.Equality, they reported: “Jay Brown, HRC Communications Director told USNews’Milligan, ‘Unlike in any other presidential election, it’s a liability to be anti-gay.’

“And this makes sense -- turnout among LGBTQ voters is reliably high. Based on exit polling in the 2012 presidential election, 81 percent of eligible LGB voters nationally cast a ballot, compared to just 58 percent of all eligible voters. In total, roughly 6 million LGB voters cast a ballot in 2012 -- an election President Obama won by just under 5 million votes. In key swing states like North Carolina, Florida, Nevada and Ohio, the number of LGBTQ adults is greater than the average margin of victory in the last three presidential elections.”

LGBT voters will no doubt turn out en masse. We will see if that makes the difference in the Presidential race.

Copyright 2016 The Gayly – September 21, 2016 @ 4:50 p.m.