Preview capsules of the NBA Western Conference 1st-round series

Here are the AP predictions on the first round of the NBA Western Conference playoffs, starting with the Thunder vrs the Grizzlies.

No. 2 Oklahoma City Thunder (59-23) vs. No. 7 Memphis Grizzlies (50-32)

Season series: Thunder, 3-1. Kevin Durant, the scoring champion and presumed MVP, averaged 35 points in the final three games of the series. Oklahoma City won both at home, plus grabbed one in Memphis back in December. Thunder also controlled the boards in each game.

Story line: Durant says he's tired of always finishing second. Well, he probably won't in the MVP race, and there's also plenty of people out there who likely think it's his time for that breakthrough first championship ring. That being said, Memphis — which ousted OKC last year, albeit a Thunder team without Russell Westbrook — is probably the team no higher seed wanted to see on their bracket pod.

Key Matchup I: Westbrook vs. Mike Conley. Two of the better point guards in the game. A key for Westbrook will be keeping his wits about him and not playing this postseason to avenge the frustration of getting hurt a year ago.

Key Matchup II: Kendrick Perkins/Serge Ibaka vs. Zach Randolph. If Randolph was in a bigger market, he could be considered a bona fide star. When he and Marc Gasol were in the lineup together this season, Memphis' two bigs played off each other as well as ever. Randolph plays well, Grizzlies have a serious shot here.

X-Factor: Mike Miller. He played a huge role in Miami winning its last two NBA titles, is healthy and tends to be extremely dangerous in the postseason. And he might have been the biggest key to the Grizzlies' playoff-clinching win at Phoenix down the stretch.

Prediction: Thunder in 7.

Other matchups

No. 1 San Antonio Spurs (62-20) vs. No. 8 Dallas Mavericks (49-33)

Season series: Spurs, 4-0. Three of the four wins came by single digits, with the Spurs getting a pair of nine-point wins (116-107 and 109-100) at Dallas, and a 112-106 win at home to go along with the only one-sided game of their series, 112-90.

Story line: The Spurs were 28.2 seconds away from an NBA title last year in Miami, the rope that would be used to cordon off the court was in place ... and then the Heat had other ideas. And while that obviously stung the Spurs, it also seemed to invigorate an older team that went on to dominate the season and win 19 straight at one point. They're not trying to get back to the finals — for the Spurs, it's all about winning them. And poor Dallas: Win 49 games and still be considered a big first-round underdog. That's rare.

Key Matchup I: Tim Duncan vs. Dirk Nowitzki. Of course. These guys have been opponents since 1999, facing off 78 times, 52 in the regular season, 26 and counting now in the playoffs. Duncan is 45-33 in those games. Yes, they're old guys now. Yes, their teams will go as far as they take them.

Key Matchup II: Tony Parker vs. Jose Calderon. Deep in the heart of Texas, a guard from France and a guard from Spain are probably as vital to their teams' respective hopes as anyone else. Calderon needs to keep Parker from going off — easier said than done — to give the Mavs a chance.

X-Factor: Factors, technically. Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green had big roles in the playoffs last year, and Leonard especially has continued blossoming this season.

Prediction: Spurs in 5.

No. 3 Los Angeles Clippers (57-25) vs. No. 6 Golden State Warriors (51-31).

Season series: Tied, 2-2. Each team won twice at home, and the dislike between the teams couldn't even be hidden on Christmas, when Blake Griffin and Draymond Green were thrown out of the Warriors' testy two-point victory.

Story line: With superstar players on both sides and two division rivals who don't like each other, this has all the makings of a classic playoff series. Golden State pulled a playoff upset last year from the same seed, but the Clippers have their best team ever and hopes of a deep run.

Key matchup I: Chris Paul vs. Stephen Curry. Perhaps the NBA's best-handling point guard against its best shooting one, and the All-Stars had a sensational duel on Halloween, when Paul had 42 points and 16 assists to beat Curry's 38 and 11 in a Clippers victory. Paul averaged 28 points and 13 assists in three games, sitting out Golden State's 111-92 victory on Jan. 30.

Key matchup II: Griffin vs. David Lee. Lee has to battle an injury to the nerve that connects from his right hamstring to his back, along with perhaps one of the few better players at his position. Lee had 20 or more points in all four games, as did Griffin, who finished it off with a 30-point, 15-rebound performance in the Clippers' March 12 rout.

X-factor: DeAndre Jordan. With fellow center Andrew Bogut out injured, the Clippers' dominant defender should be able to control the paint, but most not let his poor free throw shooting cost them down the stretch of any close games.

Prediction: Clippers in 6.

No. 4 Houston Rockets (54-28) vs. No. 5 Portland Trail Blazers (54-28)

Season series: Rockets, 3-1. Houston rang up 116 points per game against Portland, and All-Stars Dwight Howard and James Harden from the Rockets, and LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard from the Trail Blazers all put up big numbers during the series. Aldridge had 31 points and 25 rebounds in Portland's Dec. 12 victory, while Harden finished with 41 points, 10 rebounds and six assists when the Rockets pulled out a 118-113 overtime win last month.

Story line: Houston has the home-court advantage and high hopes in its first season after landing Howard last summer, but the Blazers had the much stronger finish to the season, winning their final five games.

Key matchup I: Patrick Beverley vs. Damian Lillard. Houston's defense is so much improved when Beverley is on the floor to harass opposing guards, but he also was in double figures three times against Portland during the regular season and finished with nine points and 11 rebounds in the other game. Lillard had three 20-point games against Houston, but the Blazers' lone victory came when he shot 1 for 10 for eight points.

Key matchup II: Chandler Parsons vs. Nicolas Batum. Batum's average of 10.5 points against Houston was one of his worst against any opponent. But even if he doesn't score much, the Blazers will need his defense against Harden and Parsons, who had 31 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists in Houston's 126-113 victory on Jan. 20.

X-factor: Howard. Assuming he's fully healthy after missing time down the stretch because of an ankle problem, the Rockets will expect him to deliver points on one end and help slow Aldridge on the other.

Prediction: Trail Blazers in 7.

by Brian Mahoney and Tim Reynolds, AP Basketball Writers

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The Gayly – April 18, 2014 @ 9:15am